纽约时报周二早报 美国大选今晚如何看

纽约时报周二早报 美国大选今晚如何看

杭州阿立

11/3/2020

纽约时报的每天早间新闻都直接发到我邮箱。一般我最多看个标题,具体文章没啥兴趣看。

今天这篇也不是我自己有兴趣,本来只是稍微浏览。微信这几天热心吃瓜群众、更热心欲指导吃瓜群众的精鹰们,热闹非凡。针尖对麦芒,一派众人皆醉我独醒的气势。相对来看,这篇文章倒很谦恭,一连串的谨慎、谨慎。。。

那就搬来分享,读者能读英文的自己看就好(原文附在阿立的文后)。无论左右立场、观点,同意还是嘲笑纽约时报,都可以直接去纽约时报的网站讨教、约拳。

不能看英文,不想看英文的,阿立来酱油翻译大意。纯粹中性的信使,不掺杂任何个人的观点、意愿:

《今晚大选如何观看》大卫.莱昂哈特(David Leonhardt

今天的晨报主要分两个部分:

第一是吃瓜群众今日如何看大选(态势)。首先,我建议大家一定要谨慎对待晚间的早期压倒性宣称,无论宣称来自老鸭总统,电视,还是社交媒体。今年超大量的提前投票和邮寄投票,是候选人、政治谋略家、记者们从未经历过的。分析早期投票态势意味着什么是很困难的。电视的评论无可避免会出错误。

时报的态度是宁愿错在过于谨慎。当然我们也理解众多的吃瓜群众不愿意等到明天早上看结果。下面是今晚几个值得观看的关键指标。但别把这些当作‘肯定’的答案:

下午晚些时候到晚上初期(所有时间是米国东部时间):可以预见下午晚些时候就会有人在社交媒体宣称自己已经洞察神马、神马了。无论他们的依据是什么,最好就是完全忽略,不理会这些。

最早的有意义的结果:晚上7点之后,佛罗里达州和乔治亚州的大多数投票站民调停止之后。30分钟后,是北卡。

这三个州值得关注有两个理由:

第一:如果拜登赢了这三州里的任何一个州,他就成了超级优势者。

第二:这三个州的计票比别的州更容易分析:

因为他们的计票不光有地域(哪里的选票),还有如何投票的。这个区分很关键:因为大多数州的邮件投票偏向于亲民主党,而去投票站投票(哪怕是早期)偏向于亲共和党的。但没人知道这个偏向有多大。所以早期的结果如不包括如何投票的,很难做可靠的分析。

底线:如果拜登看来要输掉这三个州,他就不再是明显的大优势者了。

参议员:这对当选总统以后执政的难易影响很大。不过这些无关总统选举,阿立就不翻译了。

回到总统选举。

如果早期结果不帮助拜登:那下面的两个州就成了关键:宾夕法尼亚州(投票站民调8点停止),和亚利桑那州。宾州需要几天来计算邮寄选票。那意味着要等到本周晚些时候才会有结果。

拜登有一条狭窄的道路得胜,如果他赢不了宾州的话。他需要赢密歇根和威斯康辛(民调拜登领先),亚利桑那(民调他小小领先),以及赢至少一个单独授予选举人票(electoral votes)的国会区域(在缅因州和内布拉斯加州,两处拜登都民调领先)。

。。。余下部分略。

The New York Times The Morning

November 3, 2020

 

By David Leonhardt

Good morning. It’s Election Day, and we have advice about how to watch the results come in.

 

 

 

 

How to watch tonight

After a presidential campaign like no other, Election Day is finally here.

If you’re not among the roughly 100 million Americans who have already voted, the good news is that lines this year may be shorter than usual because of all of the early voting. Here’s advice, from Vote.org, on the logistics of voting today.

The first part of today’s newsletter consists of a viewer’s guide to watching the returns tonight. Above all, I recommend that you be skeptical about any sweeping claims that you hear early tonight — from President Trump or on television and social media. The surge of early voting and mail-in ballots this year means that no candidates, political strategists or journalists have ever experienced an election like today’s. Figuring out the meaning of the early vote totals will be difficult, and I expect some commentators will make mistakes.

The Times will err on the side of being careful. As Dean Baquet, our executive editor, told me yesterday: “We will be cautious. There is no value in getting out front in calling any election, particularly one conducted during a pandemic. And we certainly won’t be guided by declarations from any of the candidates. We will be guided by returns.”

Of course, we recognize that many Americans won’t be satisfied waiting until tomorrow morning to hear the results. People are too invested in the outcome. So here are some key indicators to watch for tonight. Just don’t make the mistake of thinking any one of them holds a definitive answer.

Late afternoon and early evening. (All times Eastern.) Expect some people on social media to claim that they have insight into the results by late afternoon — perhaps because they have seen exit polls, perhaps because of lines at polling places. You should ignore this commentary.

Voter lines have little use as a predictive tool, especially this year. Exit polls are also problematic. Even in normal years, exit polls don’t have a clearly better track record than the final pre-election polls.

If you need an early political fix this evening, we recommend the first ever live broadcast of “The Daily,” from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. It will include interviews with voters and Times correspondents across the country.

The earliest meaningful results. They will arrive shortly after 7 p.m., after polls close in much of Florida and Georgia. Thirty minutes later, North Carolina’s polls also close.

Those three states are worth watching for two reasons: First, if Joe Biden wins any of the three, he becomes an overwhelming favorite to win the presidency. Second, the three seem likely to count votes in a more easily decipherable way than almost any other state.

They will announce not only where ballots were coming from but also how those ballots were cast. That distinction is crucial, because the mail-in vote will lean Democratic in most states while the in-person vote will lean Republican. But nobody knows exactly how big the skew will be — so reported vote counts that don’t distinguish between in-person and mail-in ballots will be extremely difficult to analyze.

Because Florida, Georgia and North Carolina will all make the distinction, they are the only three states for which The Times is creating versions of its election-night needle this year. The needles will show the percentage chance of a Trump or Biden victory in each state, as it changes tonight, based on counted ballots.

There will be no national needle this year. “The limits of available data just make too risky to do responsibly,” The Times’s Nate Cohn tweeted.

The bottom line: If Biden seems on track to lose Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he is no longer a big favorite to win. That would suggest the polls had underestimated Trump’s support. In FiveThirtyEight’s simulations, Biden has about a 50 percent chance of victory if he loses all three Southeastern swing states. He would then probably need to win at least Pennsylvania or Arizona.

The Senate. North Carolina will be important for a second reason: It is home to one of the Senate races most likely to determine Senate control. If the Democrat, Cal Cunningham, defeats the Republican incumbent, Thom Tillis, it will mean Democrats are on track to hold at least 50 Senate seats in January.

A second big Senate race is in Maine, where polls close at 8 p.m. Maine’s ranked-choice voting system means that official results may not be tallied for several days. But if the Democratic challenger, Sara Gideon, is winning more than 47 percent of the first-round vote, she will be in good shape to beat Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, Dan Shea of Colby College told us.

In Arizona and Colorado, where polls close at 9 p.m., the Democratic challengers are favored. Winning these four seats — and the vice presidency, which breaks Senate ties — will probably be enough to give Democrats control of the Senate. They also have a decent shot to win in South Carolina (where polls close at 7 p.m.), Iowa (10 p.m.), Montana (10 p.m.) and Georgia, where one or both races may go to January runoffs.

If the early stage doesn’t go well for Biden, the country’s attention will then turn to two states above all: Pennsylvania (where polls close at 8 p.m.) and Arizona. Pennsylvania will likely take days to count mail ballots, meaning there might not be a result until later this week.

But Biden has a narrow path without Pennsylvania. He would need to win Michigan and Wisconsin (where he is favored), Arizona (where he holds a narrow lead in polls) and one of the two congressional districts that award electoral votes separately (in Maine and Nebraska, and Biden leads in both).

One wild card: Texas. With Texas, Biden wouldn’t need to win anything other than the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 — not Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Arizona.

Most analysts believe Biden won’t win Texas if he isn’t also winning at least one state in the Southeast. But early turnout has been enormous in Texas this year — and elections are inherently uncertain. That’s why so many Americans are feeling anxious this morning.

For a more detailed guide to tonight, see Nate Cohn’s hour-by-hour preview.